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The Limits of Luck

I had an interesting backgammon match today and I found in it several lessons I’d like to share. Even if you don’t know the game, hang in there with me. I think you’ll still appreciate the moral to the story.

It was clear from the first roll of the dice that my opponent was a rank amateur. She had trouble discerning which color she was to play, in spite of both a visual and a verbal designation. Her first few moves made it clear that she had no grasp of strategy either.

What she did have going for her was the devil’s own luck. Backgammon is as much a game of chance as of skill, and the dice were definitely rolling her way. She outplayed me through the entire game thanks solely to her good fortune. By the time she reached the “home stretch”, I was a hundred points behind, a position from which it would be virtually impossible to recover. Still, there was that one slight chance I could pull it out and there was no money riding on the game, so I hung in there and waited for my opportunity.

Then my chance came. One disadvantageous roll on her part meant she would have to leave one of her pieces vulnerable to my attack. Now this was no dire situation from her perspective. Even if I’d managed to knock her piece out, only one chance in six, she probably still would have wiped the floor with me. She agonized over her move, clearly not willing to leave a piece open, but she eventually figured out that she had no choice.

And then she conceded the game.

Her unwillingness to play out what was an all‑but‑certain win left me puzzled. I’ve been reading insights into the situation all day.

  • Even when you don’t know what you’re doing, things can still work out for you in an astonishing fashion.
  • Even when you do know what you’re doing, sometimes the breaks just don’t go your way.
  • Unless your losses are too great, don’t give up on an unlikely position. You might still get a chance to come back strong.
  • Just because you’re faced with a possible setback, that doesn’t mean the game is lost.
  • Good luck will only take you so far. You must understand the game if you really want to win.

You may find other lessons here, too. All I can say is that this was one time I was sorry I wasn’t playing for real money. I could have cleaned up.

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